1.In the future, AI imagination will lead mankind into the era of lying and winning?

Artificial intelligence (AI), the most transformative technological force of the 21st century, is changing our lives at an unprecedented rate. Nowadays, AI has been widely used in mainstream scenarios such as healthcare, transportation, education, and entertainment, and has become an indispensable part of our lives. So, in another 10 years, when AI technology becomes more mature, what earth-shaking changes will happen in our lives?

The smart home has been fully upgraded

In the next 10 years, smart homes will achieve deeper integration and collaboration. AI will empower home devices with enhanced perception and decision-making capabilities, allowing them to automatically adjust  environmental parameters such as indoor temperature, lighting, and music based on family members’ daily habits and preferences. For example, when you come home from work, the smart system in your home will prepare the right room temperature for you in advance, automatically open the curtains, play your favorite music, and even prepare the ingredients for dinner according to your eating habits and nutritional needs.

Smarter and more convenient mobility: Autonomous driving technology will become more mature and ubiquitous, enabling not only fully autonomous driving, but also efficient coordination with other transportation facilities and vehicles. People don’t need to drive themselves, they just need to rest in the car or take care of other things, which greatly improves the comfort and safety of travel.

More personalized shopping experience: E-commerce platforms will use AI technology to provide consumers with more accurate and personalized shopping recommendations.

Disease prevention and diagnosis are more accurate: At present, AI-assisted diagnosis systems have covered 90% of common diseases. In the next 10 years, with the further development of AI technology, its application in the medical field will be more extensive and deeper.

Personalized treatment becomes mainstream: The combination of AI and gene editing technology will drive the popularization of personalized treatment options. In the future, doctors can use AI technology to formulate the most suitable treatment plan for patients based on their genetic information and disease characteristics, so as to improve the treatment effect and reduce side effects. In addition, AI will also help the intelligent development of medical equipment, such as intelligent surgical robots and intelligent rehabilitation equipment, to provide patients with more accurate and efficient medical services.

Personalized learning becomes the norm: AI will tailor a personalized learning plan for each student based on their learning progress, interests, and learning style.

The role of teachers is changing: AI will take on some teaching tasks, such as knowledge explanation and homework correction, so that teachers can focus more on instructional design, student guidance, and educational innovation. Teachers will work together with AI to provide better educational services to students.

Popularization of smart office assistants: AI smart office assistants will become a powerful assistant in people’s work. It can automatically handle daily tasks such as document editing, data analysis, and meeting scheduling, improving work efficiency. At the same time, AI will also have stronger language understanding and generation capabilities, which can help people communicate and collaborate across languages.

Remote work will be more efficient: With the development of AI technology, remote work will become more efficient and convenient. AI will provide more stable and efficient communication and collaboration tools for remote work, enabling people to work anytime, anywhere. At the same time, AI will also help business managers better manage remote teams and improve team collaboration efficiency.

More efficient urban governance: AI will help the development of smart cities and realize the dynamic resource allocation of cities. For example, in the field of transportation, AI can predict congestion nodes in real time, optimize the setting of traffic lights, and improve the efficiency of the road network. In terms of energy management, AI will realize the wind-solar-storage synergy system and improve the utilization rate of renewable energy. In terms of environmental monitoring, AI can warn of air pollution sources and shorten emergency response time.

More accurate social services: AI will provide more accurate support for social services. For example, in the field of elderly care services, AI smart devices will be able to monitor the health status of the elderly in real time and provide them with personalized care services; In terms of social assistance, AI will accurately identify people in need of assistance through data analysis and improve the efficiency of social assistance.

Human-computer interaction is more natural and smooth: In the next 10 years, major breakthroughs will be made in human-computer interaction technology. AI will have greater language understanding and generation capabilities, and will be able to have more natural and fluent conversations with humans. At the same time, emerging technologies such as brain-computer interfaces.

Emotional companionship and psychological support: AI will no longer be just a cold tool, but a partner that can provide emotional companionship and psychological support. By deeply learning the emotional patterns and psychological needs of human beings, AI can listen to your troubles, share your happiness, and give appropriate comfort and encouragement like a friend.

Convergence of human skills and AI capabilities: In the future, humans will collaborate with AI more naturally, forming a new model of “superintelligence”. People can use the powerful computing power and data analysis capabilities of AI to make up for their own shortcomings in dealing with complex problems. For example, designers can use AI-generated prototypes to quickly iterate on works that better meet their needs. Scientists can use AI to process massive amounts of experimental data and accelerate the process of scientific discovery. This human-machine integration will greatly enhance human creativity and productivity.

Immersive entertainment experience: AI will drive the development of virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) technologies to bring people a more immersive entertainment experience.

Personalized content creation: AI will bring a more personalized way of content creation to the culture and entertainment industry. In the future, AI can tailor personalized film and television works, music, games and other content for users according to their interests and preferences. For example, you can use the AI platform to generate your own movie or music based on your own ideas and creativity. At the same time, AI will also help creators improve their creative efficiency and inspire more creativity.

Data privacy protection: With the widespread application of AI technology, data privacy protection will become a crucial issue.

AI ethics and moral issues: The development of AI will also raise a series of ethical and moral issues. For example, does AI follow human ethics in the decision-making process? Will AI have an impact on human job opportunities? How can we ensure that the development of AI is in the interest of humanity? These issues need to be discussed and solved by all sectors of society to ensure the healthy development of AI technology.

2.TSMC’s 2nm monthly production capacity is 30,000 pieces, and the next four major challenges are not related to the process

TSMC 2nm will be mass-produced in the second half of this year as scheduled, and customers are queuing up to place orders, and it is expected to have a monthly production capacity of 30,000 pieces by the end of this year, and the chip industry has also reported that the foundry offer is 30,000 US dollars.

According to some supply chain operators, the TSMC crisis is estimated to only increase, and the four major challenges include:

1. The R&D center of the American factory and the bottom line of rescuing Intel.

2. Anti-monopoly problems.

3. the cost pass-through test under the inflation of the tariff war.

4. the capacity layout plan under geopolitics.

Four major challenges test the wisdom of TSMC’s management team

According to industry analysts, first of all, in response to Donald Trump’s request, he announced a plan to invest $100 billion to expand the Arizona factory, which may be just the last episode.

The next episode includes the content project of the U.S. R&D center, as well as the bottom line of cooperation with Intel, Chairman Wei Zhejia and TSMC’s management team are still in actuarial calculations, which may affect future operating performance.

TSMC held a 2nm expansion ceremony at Fab 22 in Kaohsiung on March 31. Qin Yongpei, co-chief operating officer, said: “The number of tape outs in the first two years of 2nm launch will exceed the performance of 3nm in the same period; Within 5 years after mass production, it can drive the global end product value of about 2.5 trillion US dollars.

According to the supply chain, the first mass production plant of 2nm is the Fab 20 factory in Baoshan, Zhuke, with a monthly production capacity of 3,000 pieces in mid-2024, about 8,000 pieces at present, and it is estimated that it will reach 22,000 pieces by the end of the year. The Fab 22 P1 plant in Kaohsiung is ahead of schedule and is now ready to start mass production, with a combined monthly production capacity of about 30,000 pieces by the end of the year.

It is rumored that the “affordable” 2nm customer base is similar to the 3nm generation, and the main customer is still Apple’s iPhone, and it is rumored that the iPhone 17 series, high-end Pro models will use 2nm processors, but limited production capacity and cost, and other models still use 3nm chips.

As for Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Broadcom are expected to be introduced one after another. NVIDIA, the leader of AI GPUs, will still use TSMC’s 3nm process for the Rubin platform in the second half of 2026, and it is not in a hurry to enter the 2nm generation.

Qin Yongpei explained that TSMC 2nm is currently the world’s most advanced semiconductor process, which is a significant improvement over the 3nm generation. The speed is increased by 10~15% at the same power consumption, and the power consumption is reduced by 25~30% at the same speed. Almost all major technology companies in the world work closely with TSMC.

3. The performance of China’s advanced packaging manufacturers has soared

JCET’s advanced packaging production capacity continues to be tight, and the advanced packaging and high-end testing fields dominated by wafer-level packaging have been in full production. In order to meet the strong demand of customers, the company is making every effort to expand production.

Tongfu Microelectronics continues to promote the multi-point layout strategy, and has formed a production capacity synergy network in Nantong, Suzhou, Hefei and Penang, Malaysia. Among them, Nantong has three production bases, and the advanced packaging production line continues to expand, bringing more obvious scale advantages to the company. The first equipment of the second phase of its Memory project was settled, and key equipment was added to help the mass production of high-end products; The Tongfu Tongda Advanced Packaging and Testing Base project started, focusing on advanced packaging products such as multi-layer stacking, and setting foot in key application fields such as communications and memory.

The construction of the new production base of Huatian Technology has been steadily promoted, Huatian Jiangsu and Huatian Shanghai have entered the production stage, and the construction of Pangu Semiconductor’s FOPLP production line has also been started. In 2024, the second phase of Huatian Nanjing Integrated Circuit Advanced Packaging and Testing Industrial Base will lay the foundation stone in Pukou District, with an investment of 10 billion yuan, and the construction is expected to be completed in 2028. The products will be widely used in storage, radio frequency, computing power, autonomous driving and other fields, and the annual output value of the enterprise is expected to reach 6 billion yuan after reaching production. After the completion of the project, it is expected that the annual sales revenue will be 2.159 billion yuan, and the QFP packaging capacity is expected to reach 10KK / day.

4.The potential impact of tariffs on semiconductor sales in 2025 and 2026

The new U.S. administration has created a lot of uncertainty over tariffs, which are a key policy area that will have a significant impact on the semiconductor industry. While semiconductors remain exempt from tariffs (as of now), materials, capital equipment, and end markets have all been impacted. Frequent changes in policy stance make it difficult for companies to plan. To further assist customers in their planning, TechInsights’ team of experts has analyzed and summarized the potential impact of the new U.S. tariffs on the semiconductor industry in the coming year, based on three scenarios:

Base case (April forecast): global GDP growth of 3.2%, tariffs at 10%. Semiconductor forecasts for the second half of 2025 to 2026 have been lowered, Q2/2025 demand has been released early due to tariff panic (automobiles, mobile devices, PCs, data centers, etc.), and the end of support for Windows 10 has slightly boosted PC demand

Medium-impact scenario: Global GDP grows by 2.2% and US-China tariffs rise to 30-40%. Tariff exemptions for semiconductors and electronics, H1/2025: Suppliers prioritize existing inventory due to inventory surge due to early stockpiling, H2/2025: Consumer electronics demand slows, data center demand stabilizes (GPU/HBM maintains growth)

Serious impact scenario: global GDP growth is only 1.2%, and two-way tariffs between China and the United States exceed 100%. H1/2025 is similar to the order front-loading of the medium scenario, H2/2025 has a recession in the United States and Europe: Q4 electronics sales collapsed, the holiday peak season disappeared, the demand for AI/HBM/GPU declined, the inventory backlog of the whole industry chain intensified, and enterprises reduced advertising spending, impacting the profits of ultra-large-scale operators.